Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.007
- 41.7%Success rate42.0%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.168
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.39CPOE+0.59
- 36.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.20Points / drive1.66
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 10/27 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 3 | 11 | 28 | 1 |
| Konrad Reuland | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/31 | 275 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Dwyer | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.50