2012 · Week 2

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

10·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -4.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.007
  • 41.7%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.168
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -5.39CPOE+0.59
  • 36.9%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.66
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PIT
PITQ1 15:00953Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 9:07983Touchdown7–3
PITQ1 4:19848Field goal7–6
NYJQ2 14:561341Field goal10–6
PITQ2 9:3530Punt10–6
NYJQ2 7:4730Punt10–6
PITQ2 6:431167Touchdown10–13
NYJQ2 1:0324End of half10–13
NYJQ3 15:0079Punt10–13
PITQ3 10:58544Touchdown10–20
NYJQ3 8:44528Punt10–20
PITQ3 5:5839Punt10–20
PITQ3 4:2734Punt10–20
NYJQ3 3:19418Punt10–20
PITQ3 1:42423Punt10–20
NYJQ4 14:5343Punt10–20
PITQ4 13:471575Touchdown10–27
NYJQ4 3:3430Punt10–27
PITQ4 3:0438Punt10–27
NYJQ4 1:07733End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez10/2713810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell9333.70
Shonn Greene11232.10
Tim Tebow12222.00
Joe McKnight11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley24670
Santonio Holmes311281
Konrad Reuland22200
Jeff Cumberland25130
Clyde Gates11100
Bilal Powell0200
Stephen Hill0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3127520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer12282.30
Isaac Redman12252.11
Antonio Brown199.00
Chris Rainey231.50
Baron Batch111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown710790
Mike Wallace55741
Emmanuel Sanders34330
Will Johnson11260
Heath Miller33191
Isaac Redman11140
Jonathan Dwyer12120
Leonard Pope1170
Jerricho Cotchery1260
Chris Rainey1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.50