Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
40
Model margin
+1.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.027
- 43.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.124
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.89CPOE+3.65
- 39.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.85Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 276 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 6 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Irvin Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/29 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 9 | 111 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.35