2024 · Week 7

Final

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

15·37

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

40

Model margin

+1.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.027
  • 43.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.124
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.89CPOE+3.65
  • 39.7%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PIT
PITQ1 15:00642Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 11:333-5Punt0–3
PITQ1 9:4339Punt0–3
NYJQ1 8:08967Touchdown7–3
PITQ1 2:273-2Punt7–3
NYJQ1 1:383-1Punt7–3
PITQ1 0:3732Punt7–3
NYJQ2 14:45415Punt7–3
PITQ2 12:45868Field goal7–6
NYJQ2 8:20672Touchdown15–6
PITQ2 5:29538Punt15–6
NYJQ2 3:10429Turnover15–6
PITQ2 1:15525Touchdown15–13
NYJQ2 0:271-4End of half15–13
NYJQ3 15:00426Punt15–13
PITQ3 12:411076Field goal15–16
NYJQ3 7:4920Turnover15–22
PITQ3 7:2211Touchdown15–23
NYJQ3 7:151057Missed field goal15–23
PITQ3 2:371175Touchdown15–30
NYJQ4 12:09955Turnover on downs15–30
PITQ4 7:531375Touchdown15–37
NYJQ4 0:26112End of half15–37

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3927612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall12383.21
Isaiah Davis11212.00
Braelon Allen242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breece Hall691030
Garrett Wilson59610
Allen Lazard44580
Davante Adams39300
Mike Williams12150
Tyler Conklin4471
Braelon Allen1120
Irvin Charles0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/2926420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris211024.91
Jaylen Warren12443.70
Russell Wilson331.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens591111
Pat Freiermuth23510
Calvin Austin III14360
Darnell Washington44360
Van Jefferson23151
Jaylen Warren23150
Najee Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.35