2025 · Week 1

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

34·32

Jets

New York

QB Justin Fields

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

-3.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJets
  • +0.027EPA / play-0.129
  • 44.1%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +0.58CPOE-4.21
  • 40.4%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.54
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00948Field goal0–3
PITQ1 9:151071Touchdown7–3
NYJQ1 3:38655Touchdown7–9
PITQ1 0:25435Field goal10–9
NYJQ2 13:26768Touchdown10–16
PITQ2 10:0332Punt10–16
NYJQ2 7:47746Field goal10–19
PITQ2 2:54965Touchdown17–19
NYJQ2 0:32323End of half17–19
PITQ3 15:0039Punt17–19
NYJQ3 13:0737Punt17–19
PITQ3 11:2769Punt17–19
NYJQ3 8:57873Touchdown17–26
PITQ3 3:46953Touchdown24–26
NYJQ4 14:5700Touchdown24–26
PITQ4 14:50222Touchdown31–26
NYJQ4 14:071262Touchdown31–32
PITQ4 7:013-14Punt31–32
NYJQ4 5:2135Punt31–32
PITQ4 3:13620Field goal34–32
NYJQ4 1:0347Turnover on downs34–32
PITQ4 0:1800End of half34–32

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3024440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren11373.40
Kenny Gainwell7192.70
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00
Kaleb Johnson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf47830
Calvin Austin III46701
Pat Freiermuth33280
Ben Skowronek11221
Jaylen Warren22221
Jonnu Smith56151
Kenny Gainwell3440

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields16/2221810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall191075.60
Justin Fields12484.02
Isaiah Davis2189.00
Braelon Allen691.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson79951
Breece Hall24380
Tyler Johnson22310
Mason Taylor11200
Josh Reynolds23180
Jeremy Ruckert22160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.59