Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-3.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play-0.129
- 44.1%Success rate40.5%
- +0.046EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.58CPOE-4.21
- 40.4%Third-down rate35.0%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.11Points / drive1.54
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/30 | 244 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16/22 | 218 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 7 | 9 | 95 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.59