Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play-0.155
- 38.5%Success rate37.3%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.257EPA / rush-0.216
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.9%
- -1.51CPOE+0.20
- 34.3%Third-down rate30.8%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 1.35Points / drive1.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 14/20 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 11/17 | 84 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kerrith Whyte | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| James Washington | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/26 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 25 | 72 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Vyncint Smith | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.29
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.55