2019 · Week 16

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Devlin Hodges

10·16

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Nothing filed.

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJets
  • -0.136EPA / play-0.155
  • 38.5%Success rate37.3%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.119
  • -0.257EPA / rush-0.216
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -1.51CPOE+0.20
  • 34.3%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.20
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001264Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 10:27834Turnover0–7
NYJQ1 5:4538Punt0–7
PITQ1 4:0335Punt0–7
NYJQ1 1:52623Field goal0–10
PITQ2 14:15741Turnover0–10
NYJQ2 10:2133Punt0–10
PITQ2 9:20620Punt0–10
NYJQ2 5:5834Punt0–10
PITQ2 3:42955Field goal3–10
NYJQ2 1:18426Turnover3–10
PITQ2 0:28436Touchdown10–10
NYJQ2 0:0400End of half10–10
PITQ3 15:00510Punt10–10
NYJQ3 11:39962Field goal10–13
PITQ3 6:3036Punt10–13
NYJQ3 4:5236Punt10–13
PITQ3 3:19618Punt10–13
NYJQ3 0:3669Punt10–13
PITQ4 13:25723Punt10–13
NYJQ4 8:38857Field goal10–16
PITQ4 3:113-4Punt10–16
NYJQ4 1:533-2Punt10–16
PITQ4 1:27616Turnover on downs10–16
NYJQ4 0:3900End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph14/2012910
Devlin Hodges11/178402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner6325.30
Kerrith Whyte6223.70
Benny Snell7142.00
Jaylen Samuels372.30
Mason Rudolph200.00
Devlin Hodges100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson89811
James Washington58410
Jaylen Samuels46320
JuJu Smith-Schuster24220
Nick Vannett11180
Deon Cain22100
Vance McDonald3690

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold16/2618310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell25722.90
Ty Montgomery273.50
Bilal Powell133.00
Sam Darnold430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder48600
Robbie Chosen24321
Vyncint Smith34320
Trevon Wesco11320
Le'Veon Bell44210
Bilal Powell1250
Ty Montgomery1110
Daniel Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.29
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.55