Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.105
- 42.4%Success rate37.6%
- +0.096EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.173EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.30CPOE-4.00
- 37.6%Third-down rate38.8%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.82Points / drive1.25
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/30 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 11 | 86 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 19/34 | 201 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Cumberland | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+0.19