2013 · Week 6

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

19·6

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapJets
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.105
  • 42.4%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.096EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.173EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +3.30CPOE-4.00
  • 37.6%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.25
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–NYJ
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:21515Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:4146Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:04843Field goal0–3
PITQ1 3:251062Field goal3–3
NYJQ2 12:0745Punt3–3
PITQ2 10:08852Field goal6–3
NYJQ2 5:253-2Punt6–3
PITQ2 4:03745Field goal9–3
NYJQ2 0:45651Field goal9–6
PITQ2 0:0200End of half9–6
NYJQ3 15:0034Punt9–6
PITQ3 14:01364Touchdown16–6
NYJQ3 12:30853Turnover16–6
PITQ3 7:52513Punt16–6
NYJQ3 5:363-4Punt16–6
PITQ3 4:111350Field goal19–6
NYJQ4 12:09627Punt19–6
PITQ4 10:2139Punt19–6
NYJQ4 7:52512Punt19–6
PITQ4 7:0231Punt19–6
NYJQ4 4:49654Turnover19–6
PITQ4 2:59620Punt19–6
NYJQ4 0:1819End of half19–6

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3026410
Antonio Brown1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell16342.10
Felix Jones5183.60
Ben Roethlisberger2115.50
Jonathan Dwyer3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown911860
Heath Miller67840
Emmanuel Sanders36701
Le'Veon Bell33220
Felix Jones11150
Will Johnson2320

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith19/3420102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell9303.30
Mike Goodson4297.30
Chris Ivory4164.00
Geno Smith382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Cumberland45590
Stephen Hill38460
Clyde Gates57360
Bilal Powell33200
Jeremy Kerley27190
David Nelson11110
Mike Goodson11100
Konrad Reuland0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+0.19