2022 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

24·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mitch Trubisky

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

41

Model margin

+4.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.012
  • 39.1%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.093EPA / rush+0.006
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.97CPOE+1.33
  • 34.3%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PIT
PITQ1 15:00935Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:5739Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:4110Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 7:35616Field goal3–0
PITQ1 4:0339Punt3–0
NYJQ1 2:05970Touchdown10–0
PITQ2 12:37952Field goal10–3
NYJQ2 8:3032Punt10–3
PITQ2 7:33521Punt10–3
NYJQ2 5:22522Punt10–3
PITQ2 3:433-10Punt10–3
NYJQ2 2:32820Turnover10–3
PITQ2 0:20314Field goal10–6
NYJQ3 15:0031Punt10–6
PITQ3 13:53614Turnover10–6
NYJQ3 10:59419Turnover10–6
PITQ3 8:4534Touchdown10–13
NYJQ3 7:18628Punt10–13
PITQ3 5:071387Touchdown10–20
NYJQ4 13:361291Touchdown17–20
PITQ4 7:31744Turnover17–20
NYJQ4 3:341170Touchdown24–20
PITQ4 0:16227Turnover24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson18/3625212
Braxton Berrios1/1210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall17663.91
Michael Carter9151.70
Zach Wilson2157.50
Elijah Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis56741
Elijah Moore34530
Tyler Conklin35520
Garrett Wilson26410
Michael Carter23140
Breece Hall26120
Braxton Berrios1160
Zach Wilson1121
Jeff Smith0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett10/1312003
Mitchell Trubisky7/138401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris18744.10
Jaylen Warren3186.00
Kenny Pickett6152.52
Diontae Johnson2115.50
Mitchell Trubisky111.00
Gunner Olszewski100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens681020
Pat Freiermuth79850
Diontae Johnson24110
Jaylen Warren1140
Zach Gentry1120
Chase Claypool0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.59
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.86