Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41
Model margin
+4.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.012
- 39.1%Success rate45.1%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.093EPA / rush+0.006
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.97CPOE+1.33
- 34.3%Third-down rate43.5%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.41Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/36 | 252 | 1 | 2 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 2 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeff Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10/13 | 120 | 0 | 3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 7/13 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 8 | 102 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.59
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.86