2016 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

13·31

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -10

Total

50

Model margin

+4.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.085
  • 40.5%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -4.70CPOE+1.74
  • 36.5%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.40Points / drive2.24
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT
2010 · playoffsNYJ @ PIT19–24PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PIT
NYJQ1 15:00758Field goal3–0
PITQ1 11:45375Touchdown3–7
NYJQ1 10:16833Punt3–7
PITQ1 6:01935Punt3–7
NYJQ1 0:47859Field goal6–7
PITQ2 11:071143Turnover on downs6–7
NYJQ2 5:54769Touchdown13–7
PITQ2 2:061273Touchdown13–14
NYJQ2 0:411-3End of half13–14
PITQ3 15:00519Punt13–14
NYJQ3 12:343-1Punt13–14
PITQ3 11:2132Field goal13–17
NYJQ3 10:2339Punt13–17
PITQ3 9:0531Punt13–17
NYJQ3 8:10837Punt13–17
PITQ3 4:071076Touchdown13–24
NYJQ4 14:5539Punt13–24
PITQ4 13:01643Turnover13–24
NYJQ4 9:36427Punt13–24
PITQ4 7:291371Touchdown13–31
NYJQ4 1:46619Turnover on downs13–31
PITQ4 0:5000End of half13–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick25/3825510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte12534.40
Bilal Powell4102.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall8151141
Quincy Enunwa47510
Bilal Powell68410
Austin Seferian-Jenkins22170
Robbie Chosen12100
Brandon Bostick1190
Matt Forte2270
Charone Peake1160

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger34/4738040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell20663.30
DeAngelo Williams100.00
Landry Jones2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammie Coates6111392
Le'Veon Bell911880
Antonio Brown911781
Jesse James68431
Markus Wheaton23190
Xavier Grimble22130
DeAngelo Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.89