Closing spread
PIT -10
Total
50
Model margin
+4.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.085
- 40.5%Success rate46.0%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- -4.70CPOE+1.74
- 36.5%Third-down rate41.9%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.40Points / drive2.24
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 25/38 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 15 | 114 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 34/47 | 380 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 20 | 66 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammie Coates | 6 | 11 | 139 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 9 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 11 | 78 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 6 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.89