Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.044
- 38.9%Success rate42.2%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.20Points / drive1.49
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. DEN are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/37 | 243 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 12 | 104 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 3 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 11/17 | 81 | 1 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 10/20 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 14 | 66 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Kevin Kasper | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Cole | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| KaRon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.51