2001 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

7·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

41

Model margin

+2.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapBroncos
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.044
  • 38.9%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.2%
  • 36.1%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.49
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. DEN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DEN
SEAQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:3237Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:3549Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 8:311051Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 3:1040Punt0–7
DENQ1 1:59716Field goal0–10
SEAQ2 13:471245Turnover0–10
DENQ2 7:52723Punt0–10
SEAQ2 4:451080Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 1:05419Turnover7–10
SEAQ2 0:0610End of half7–10
DENQ3 15:0042Turnover7–10
SEAQ3 13:1631Missed field goal7–10
DENQ3 11:4537Punt7–10
SEAQ3 10:46422Turnover7–10
DENQ3 9:15638Touchdown7–17
SEAQ3 7:3958Punt7–17
DENQ3 4:21985Field goal7–20
SEAQ3 0:43415Punt7–20
DENQ4 14:081252Punt7–20
SEAQ4 6:151379Turnover on downs7–20
DENQ4 1:5259End of half7–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck17/3724312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander12282.30
Ricky Watters6233.80
Matt Hasselbeck2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Jackson4121041
Koren Robinson37610
Bobby Engram24260
Ricky Watters23180
Christian Fauria24140
Shaun Alexander2340

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese11/178111
Gus Frerotte10/207710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrell Davis191095.70
Kevin Kasper12727.00
Brian Griese2189.00
KaRon Coleman284.00
Mike Anderson252.50
Gus Frerotte2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith814660
Desmond Clark25171
Kevin Kasper23150
Chris Cole12120
Tony Carter11100
Scottie Montgomery11100
Terrell Davis2580
KaRon Coleman1160
Patrick Hape1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.51