2001 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.028
- 38.9%Success rate39.3%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.182
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 34.9%Third-down rate28.9%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 1.18Points / drive1.12
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 19/26 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 26 | 110 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 7 | 9 | 82 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/34 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 12 | 132 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95