2018 · Week 1

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

24·6

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Sam Bradford

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -2

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.240
  • 42.3%Success rate35.6%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -3.01CPOE-7.13
  • 36.2%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.44Points / drive0.92
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ARI
WASQ1 15:00838Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:13732Punt0–0
WASQ1 5:471180Touchdown7–0
ARIQ2 14:5433Punt7–0
WASQ2 13:161573Touchdown14–0
ARIQ2 4:1032Punt14–0
WASQ2 3:191170Touchdown21–0
ARIQ2 0:0800End of half21–0
ARIQ3 15:00434Punt21–0
WASQ3 12:523-4Punt21–0
ARIQ3 12:0734Punt21–0
WASQ3 11:071453Punt21–0
ARIQ3 4:21638Turnover21–0
WASQ3 1:551058Field goal24–0
ARIQ4 12:131471Touchdown24–6
WASQ4 5:4739Punt24–6
ARIQ4 4:30519Turnover on downs24–6
WASQ4 3:20353Turnover24–6
ARIQ4 1:45611Turnover24–6
WASQ4 0:0600End of half24–6

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3025520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson26963.71
Chris Thompson56513.00
Alex Smith8141.80
Rob Kelley372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adrian Peterson23700
Chris Thompson67631
Jordan Reed45481
Jamison Crowder34320
Paul Richardson46220
Josh Doctson13110
Vernon Davis1190

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford20/3415301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson9374.11
Chase Edmonds4246.00
Sam Bradford273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald710760
David Johnson59300
Chase Edmonds44240
Ricky Seals-Jones36190
Christian Kirk1240
Chad Williams0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.84