2018 · Week 1
Final
State Farm Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.240
- 42.3%Success rate35.6%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.0%
- -3.01CPOE-7.13
- 36.2%Third-down rate29.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.44Points / drive0.92
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/30 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 96 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 20/34 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.84