2016 · Week 13
Final
University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.005
- 48.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.202EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.093
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.99CPOE-0.78
- 44.9%Third-down rate40.4%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.32Points / drive1.89
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/37 | 271 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 30/46 | 300 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 18 | 84 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 9 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 10 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 3 | 8 | 18 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.43