2016 · Week 13

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

23·31

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.005
  • 48.2%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.093
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.99CPOE-0.78
  • 44.9%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.89
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001575Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 6:433-1Punt0–7
ARIQ1 4:2333Punt0–7
WASQ1 3:25730Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:01622Punt0–7
WASQ2 13:21645Field goal3–7
ARIQ2 9:4845Punt3–7
WASQ2 7:181157Field goal6–7
ARIQ2 1:521065Field goal6–10
WASQ2 0:0700End of half6–10
WASQ3 15:00574Touchdown13–10
ARIQ3 12:361335Missed field goal13–10
WASQ3 5:342-13Turnover13–10
ARIQ3 5:01310Touchdown13–17
WASQ3 4:10875Touchdown20–17
ARIQ3 1:061185Touchdown20–24
WASQ4 11:09940Field goal23–24
ARIQ4 6:01970Touchdown23–31
WASQ4 1:56827Turnover23–31
ARIQ4 0:4100End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3727111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley14634.50
Chris Thompson22412.00
Kirk Cousins200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon79780
DeSean Jackson14590
Vernon Davis56470
Jamison Crowder38421
Chris Thompson12210
Ryan Grant22200
Derek Carrier1160
Rob Kelley0100
Maurice Harris11-20

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer30/4630030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson18844.71
Andre Ellington551.00
Carson Palmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson912911
Larry Fitzgerald1011780
Jermaine Gresham56520
J.J. Nelson12421
Michael Floyd38181
Andre Ellington12100
Darren Fells1190
John Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.43