2024 · Week 4

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

42·14

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.138EPA / play+0.067
  • 48.1%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.126
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.023
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +4.57CPOE+2.11
  • 45.9%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.31
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00955Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:54970Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 5:13628Punt7–7
WASQ1 2:391393Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 10:1839Punt14–7
WASQ2 8:57531Turnover14–7
ARIQ2 6:4132Punt14–7
WASQ2 4:353-5Punt14–7
ARIQ2 3:07928Turnover on downs14–7
WASQ2 0:29431Field goal17–7
WASQ3 15:00423Touchdown24–7
ARIQ3 13:5254Punt24–7
WASQ3 11:531145Field goal27–7
ARIQ3 5:161174Touchdown27–14
WASQ3 0:1113100Touchdown35–14
ARIQ4 8:30552Turnover35–14
WASQ4 7:11861Touchdown42–14
ARIQ4 4:30844End of half42–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels26/3023311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson211014.81
Jeremy McNichols8688.52
Jayden Daniels8475.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus66850
Terry McLaurin710521
Noah Brown34260
Zach Ertz33220
Luke McCaffrey11170
Brian Robinson33120
John Bates1190
Jeremy McNichols1160
Dyami Brown1140

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray16/2214210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner181045.81
Trey Benson9505.60
Emari Demercado4246.00
Kyler Murray133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.56451
Greg Dortch44380
Michael Wilson37380
Elijah Higgins23120
James Conner1190
Emari Demercado1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.62