2024 · Week 4
Final
State Farm Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play+0.067
- 48.1%Success rate47.3%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.023
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- +4.57CPOE+2.11
- 45.9%Third-down rate43.0%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.78Points / drive2.31
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 26/30 | 233 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 21 | 101 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 68 | 8.5 | 2 |
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 16/22 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 18 | 104 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Trey Benson | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.62