2017 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Blaine Gabbert

15·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

WAS -4

Total

40

Model margin

+3.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.051
  • 38.8%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -4.25CPOE+1.00
  • 35.7%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.61
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–WAS
ARIQ1 15:003-7Turnover0–0
WASQ1 14:1326Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 13:301560Field goal3–7
WASQ1 3:47417Punt3–7
ARIQ1 1:5733Punt3–7
WASQ1 0:08652Touchdown3–14
ARIQ2 13:271138Field goal6–14
WASQ2 7:354-5Punt6–14
ARIQ2 5:26771Turnover6–14
WASQ2 1:5017Turnover6–14
ARIQ2 1:39837Field goal9–14
WASQ3 15:0000Field goal9–14
ARIQ3 14:5936Field goal12–14
WASQ3 13:3738Punt12–14
ARIQ3 12:0139Punt12–14
WASQ3 10:271188Field goal12–17
ARIQ3 4:2331Punt12–17
WASQ3 3:2468Punt12–17
ARIQ4 14:50832Field goal15–17
WASQ4 11:1336Punt15–17
ARIQ4 9:213-9Punt15–17
WASQ4 7:51730Field goal15–20
ARIQ4 4:30522Punt15–20
WASQ4 2:2632Punt15–20
ARIQ4 1:59923Turnover on downs15–20
WASQ4 0:1600End of half15–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert16/4118901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams17613.60
Blaine Gabbert6284.70
J.J. Nelson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald510600
J.J. Nelson13460
Troy Niklas36410
D.J. Foster49220
Ricky Seals-Jones26110
Jaron Brown1390
Kerwynn Williams0100
Gabe Holmes0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins18/2619620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine14372.60
Kapri Bibbs263.00
LeShun Daniels122.00
Kirk Cousins200.00
Josh Doctson1-14-14.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder57551
Kapri Bibbs44471
Samaje Perine22290
Ryan Grant23200
Vernon Davis25180
Josh Doctson24160
Niles Paul11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.93