2017 · Week 15
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
40
Model margin
+3.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.051
- 38.8%Success rate40.8%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- -4.25CPOE+1.00
- 35.7%Third-down rate32.5%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.20Points / drive1.61
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 16/41 | 189 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 4 | 9 | 22 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Holmes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/26 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LeShun Daniels | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93