2020 · Week 2

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

15·30

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.051
  • 42.1%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.063EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.009
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.32CPOE+2.07
  • 40.2%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.19
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ARI
WASQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:311263Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:09514Punt0–7
ARIQ1 6:4530Turnover0–7
WASQ1 5:3037Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 4:1433Punt0–7
ARIQ1 2:44640Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 15:0038Punt0–14
ARIQ2 13:26561Field goal0–17
WASQ2 11:291135Punt0–17
ARIQ2 5:52980Field goal0–20
WASQ2 1:49629Punt0–20
ARIQ2 0:131-3End of half0–20
ARIQ3 15:0036Punt0–20
WASQ3 13:07529Punt0–20
ARIQ3 11:01714Punt0–20
WASQ3 8:091061Field goal3–20
ARIQ3 3:141380Touchdown3–27
WASQ4 14:17662Touchdown9–27
ARIQ4 12:20515Punt9–27
WASQ4 9:331167Touchdown15–27
ARIQ4 6:381079Field goal15–30
WASQ4 0:2611End of half15–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins19/3322310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson13554.21
J.D. McKissic8536.60
Dwayne Haskins188.00
Peyton Barber111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin7101251
Steven Sims35530
Logan Thomas49260
Dontrelle Inman25170
Antonio Gandy-Golden1130
Marcus Baugh1120
Antonio Gibson12-30

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray26/3828611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake20864.30
Kyler Murray8678.42
Chase Edmonds341.30
Christian Kirk133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins89681
Andy Isabella23670
Christian Kirk24570
Larry Fitzgerald77500
Dan Arnold24260
Kenyan Drake2290
Chase Edmonds3490
Darrell Daniels0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

39.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.60