2020 · Week 2
Final
State Farm Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
ARI -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.051
- 42.1%Success rate46.0%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.009
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.32CPOE+2.07
- 40.2%Third-down rate40.2%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.76Points / drive2.19
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 19/33 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 10 | 125 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Marcus Baugh | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 26/38 | 286 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 2 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| Andy Isabella | 2 | 3 | 67 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
39.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60