2011 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.058
- 41.4%Success rate41.9%
- -0.076EPA / dropback-0.048
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -5.82CPOE-1.12
- 32.0%Third-down rate36.9%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
- 1.38Points / drive1.48
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 17/30 | 251 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 9 | 133 | 1 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 25/43 | 291 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 20 | 96 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 6 | 7 | 86 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.62