2011 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kevin Kolb

21·22

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.058
  • 41.4%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback-0.048
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -5.82CPOE-1.12
  • 32.0%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate47.2%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.48
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–WAS
WASQ1 15:001260Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 10:04416Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:36742Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 4:32237Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 3:541472Field goal7–3
ARIQ2 10:25829Punt7–3
WASQ2 6:01772Touchdown7–10
ARIQ2 3:0431Punt7–10
WASQ2 1:3638Missed field goal7–10
ARIQ2 0:3432Punt7–10
WASQ2 0:0300End of half7–10
ARIQ3 15:001036Turnover7–10
WASQ3 9:26445Punt7–10
ARIQ3 7:18990Touchdown14–10
WASQ3 2:4751Punt14–10
ARIQ3 1:33425Punt14–10
WASQ4 15:00639Field goal14–13
ARIQ4 11:18173Touchdown21–13
WASQ4 10:581373Touchdown21–19
ARIQ4 5:1733Punt21–19
WASQ4 4:20748Field goal21–22
ARIQ4 1:45112Turnover21–22
WASQ4 1:3900Punt21–22

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb17/3025121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells14936.61
Chester Taylor100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald791331
Jeff King22361
Andre Roberts37300
Chansi Stuckey23240
Early Doucet26200
Todd Heap1180
Chris Wells0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman25/4329122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower20964.80
Roy Helu10747.40
Rex Grossman4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis67861
Jabar Gaffney58620
Santana Moss59611
Roy Helu34380
Donte' Stallworth25160
Anthony Armstrong24140
Tim Hightower12100
Chris Cooley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.62