2014 · Week 6

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

20·30

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.024
  • 41.7%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.165
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.13CPOE-4.59
  • 31.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.54
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2023 · W1ARI @ WAS16–20WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:25422Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:16739Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:2331Punt0–0
ARIQ1 5:21546Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 3:08877Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 14:0335Punt7–7
WASQ2 12:29965Field goal10–7
ARIQ2 8:20533Punt10–7
WASQ2 5:48619Punt10–7
ARIQ2 2:49949Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 0:31355Field goal13–14
ARIQ2 0:0200End of half13–14
WASQ3 15:00621Punt13–14
ARIQ3 11:361374Field goal13–17
WASQ3 4:1336Punt13–17
ARIQ3 2:44739Field goal13–20
WASQ4 12:54114Turnover13–20
ARIQ4 12:4058Field goal13–23
WASQ4 10:27517Turnover13–23
ARIQ4 8:29611Punt13–23
WASQ4 5:55630Turnover13–23
ARIQ4 4:073-5Punt13–23
WASQ4 3:43464Touchdown20–23
ARIQ4 2:1735Punt20–29
WASQ4 0:2910Opp touchdown20–30
WASQ4 0:18116End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3835423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris13413.20
Roy Helu3268.70
DeSean Jackson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson351151
Jordan Reed811920
Andre Roberts59550
Roy Helu22400
Pierre Garcon46311
Alfred Morris13140
Niles Paul1270

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer28/4425020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington19673.50
Stepfan Taylor3103.30
Carson Palmer1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald66981
Michael Floyd47471
John Brown46430
Andre Ellington69260
Rob Housler23150
John Carlson46140
Robert Hughes1170
Ted Ginn0100
Stepfan Taylor1200
Jaron Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.71
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.77