2014 · Week 6
Final
University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
ARI -5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.024
- 41.7%Success rate39.1%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.165
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.13CPOE-4.59
- 31.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.39Points / drive1.54
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. ARI are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/38 | 354 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 5 | 115 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 8 | 11 | 92 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 28/44 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 6 | 98 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| John Brown | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 6 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.71
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.77