2023 · Week 1

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Joshua Dobbs

16·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors

Closing spread

WAS -7

Total

38

Model margin

+3.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.084
  • 41.0%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.082EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.119
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.77CPOE+0.32
  • 39.6%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.53
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 14–4 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4WAS @ ARI42–14WAS
2020 · W2WAS @ ARI15–30ARI
2018 · W1WAS @ ARI24–6WAS
2017 · W15ARI @ WAS15–20WAS
2016 · W13WAS @ ARI23–31ARI
2014 · W6WAS @ ARI20–30ARI
2011 · W2ARI @ WAS21–22WAS
2008 · W3ARI @ WAS17–24WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00826Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:59613Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:35824Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 4:15764Field goal3–7
WASQ1 0:534-1Turnover3–7
ARIQ2 14:4631Field goal6–7
WASQ2 13:26859Turnover6–7
ARIQ2 8:5144Punt6–7
WASQ2 6:1744Punt6–7
ARIQ2 4:27735Punt6–7
WASQ2 1:294-10Opp touchdown13–7
WASQ2 0:55669Field goal13–10
ARIQ3 15:001056Field goal16–10
WASQ3 10:09810Punt16–10
ARIQ3 5:22419Punt16–10
WASQ3 2:54412Punt16–10
ARIQ3 1:283-11Turnover16–10
WASQ3 0:02729Touchdown16–17
ARIQ4 11:483-2Punt16–17
WASQ4 9:4739Punt16–17
ARIQ4 7:37824Turnover16–17
WASQ4 4:3837Field goal16–20
ARIQ4 2:2377Turnover on downs16–20
WASQ4 1:10410Punt16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs21/3013200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner14624.40
Marquise Brown12929.00
Rondale Moore2126.00
Joshua Dobbs3-3-1.00
Keaontay Ingram5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rondale Moore33330
Marquise Brown35280
Trey McBride22230
Zach Ertz610210
Michael Wilson24190
James Conner5580
Zach Pascal0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell19/3120211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson19593.10
Sam Howell2115.51
Antonio Gibson393.00
Chris Rodriguez Jr.372.30
Curtis Samuel166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel55540
Logan Thomas48430
Jahan Dotson57400
Terry McLaurin24310
Cole Turner12170
Antonio Gibson11100
Brian Robinson1271

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.89
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.08