2023 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
38
Model margin
+3.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.084
- 41.0%Success rate41.9%
- -0.082EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.77CPOE+0.32
- 39.6%Third-down rate35.6%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.88Points / drive1.53
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 21/30 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 10 | 21 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 19/31 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.89
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08