Closing spread
NYG -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.048
- 39.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- 28.9%Third-down rate35.2%
- 48.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.12Points / drive1.21
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. NYG are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 27/45 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 8 | 16 | 84 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 7 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Dennis McKinley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/32 | 147 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29