Closing spread
NYJ -8.5
Total
35
Model margin
+2.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play-0.031
- 39.0%Success rate41.1%
- -0.080EPA / dropback+0.011
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.079
- 6.9%Explosive rate10.9%
- 37.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 0.98Points / drive1.16
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 10/17 | 93 | 0 | 3 |
| Akili Smith | 4/6 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Akili Smith | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kirk McMullen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 17/28 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 78 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Swayne | 4 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| James Dearth | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.53