Closing spread
NYJ -10
Total
43
Model margin
+4.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.019
- 44.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.015
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.056
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.88CPOE-4.95
- 39.8%Third-down rate40.2%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 1.45Points / drive1.69
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/38 | 135 | 1 | 2 |
| Chad Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 18 | 41 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 5 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 16/28 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.57