Closing spread
CIN -11.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.072
- 44.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- +5.14CPOE-7.25
- 40.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.38Points / drive1.70
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 21/34 | 259 | 3 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1/1 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 6 | 97 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 37/45 | 405 | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Johnson | 2/4 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mike White | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 9 | 14 | 95 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 8 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64