2021 · Week 8

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

31·34

Jets

New York

QB Mike White

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CIN -11.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJets
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.072
  • 44.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +5.14CPOE-7.25
  • 40.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.70
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYJ @ CIN39–38NYJ
2022 · W3CIN @ NYJ27–12CIN
2019 · W13NYJ @ CIN6–22CIN
2016 · W1CIN @ NYJ23–22CIN
2013 · W8NYJ @ CIN9–49CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ CIN24–14NYJ
2009 · W17CIN @ NYJ0–37NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001179Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 8:3839Punt0–7
NYJQ1 7:13736Turnover0–7
CINQ1 3:374-14Turnover on downs0–7
NYJQ1 2:0426Turnover0–7
CINQ1 1:28513Touchdown7–7
NYJQ2 14:57739Missed field goal7–7
CINQ2 11:2531Punt7–7
NYJQ2 8:5036Punt7–7
CINQ2 7:23865Touchdown14–7
NYJQ2 3:21228Turnover14–7
CINQ2 2:40446Field goal17–7
NYJQ2 1:51867Touchdown17–14
CINQ2 0:1500End of half17–14
CINQ3 15:00534Punt17–14
NYJQ3 12:161367Field goal17–17
CINQ3 5:17475Touchdown24–17
NYJQ3 3:11969Field goal24–20
CINQ4 12:281275Touchdown31–20
NYJQ4 7:29990Touchdown31–26
CINQ4 4:3610Turnover31–26
NYJQ4 4:32214Touchdown31–34
CINQ4 3:45515Punt31–34
NYJQ4 2:09614End of half31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow21/3425931
Tyler Boyd1/14600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14332.41
Ja'Marr Chase199.00
Joe Burrow1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins46970
Tyler Boyd58691
Joe Mixon45581
C.J. Uzomah44330
Ja'Marr Chase39321
Samaje Perine22160

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike White37/4540532
Josh Johnson2/41700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter15775.11
Ty Johnson4153.80
Elijah Moore144.00
La'Mical Perine133.00
Mike White5-1-0.20
Jeff Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Carter914950
Jamison Crowder89840
Ty Johnson56711
Elijah Moore66670
Denzel Mims23300
Keelan Cole35250
Tyler Kroft22201
Braxton Berrios22131
Jeff Smith11100
Ryan Griffin1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.64