Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.097
- 37.3%Success rate40.3%
- -0.119EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.216EPA / rush-0.137
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.20CPOE-5.27
- 30.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.20Points / drive1.31
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 28/48 | 239 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 10 | 101 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 9 | 8 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/37 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 44 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auden Tate | 4 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 10 | 59 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Damion Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.10