2019 · Week 13

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

6·22

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBengals
  • -0.155EPA / play-0.097
  • 37.3%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.216EPA / rush-0.137
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.20CPOE-5.27
  • 30.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.31
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYJ @ CIN39–38NYJ
2022 · W3CIN @ NYJ27–12CIN
2021 · W8CIN @ NYJ31–34NYJ
2016 · W1CIN @ NYJ23–22CIN
2013 · W8NYJ @ CIN9–49CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ CIN24–14NYJ
2009 · W17CIN @ NYJ0–37NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CIN
NYJQ1 15:001251Field goal3–0
CINQ1 9:08520Punt3–0
CINQ1 6:5100Punt3–0
NYJQ1 6:4330Punt3–0
CINQ1 4:43762Touchdown3–7
NYJQ1 1:123-3Punt3–7
CINQ2 14:10839Field goal3–10
NYJQ2 9:13944Punt3–10
CINQ2 4:32852Touchdown3–17
NYJQ2 1:461069Field goal6–17
CINQ2 0:0400End of half6–17
CINQ3 15:00942Missed field goal6–17
NYJQ3 11:0745Punt6–17
CINQ3 8:57620Punt6–17
NYJQ3 6:1822Safety6–19
CINQ3 5:46729Field goal6–22
NYJQ3 1:1530Punt6–22
CINQ3 0:5032Punt6–22
NYJQ4 14:543-4Punt6–22
CINQ4 12:4936Punt6–22
NYJQ4 11:121264Turnover on downs6–22
CINQ4 6:22511Punt6–22
NYJQ4 3:401143Turnover on downs6–22
CINQ4 1:4000End of half6–22

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold28/4823900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell10323.20
Bilal Powell4143.50
Sam Darnold294.50
Ty Montgomery177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen7101010
Le'Veon Bell45350
Ryan Griffin57300
Demaryius Thomas35230
Vyncint Smith23230
Daniel Brown1190
Jamison Crowder2980
Braxton Berrios1250
Bilal Powell2240
Ty Montgomery1110

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3724310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon19442.31
Giovani Bernard144.00
Andy Dalton5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Auden Tate47660
Tyler Boyd510591
C.J. Uzomah56510
Joe Mixon44260
Alex Erickson22210
Tyler Eifert12120
Giovani Bernard1280
Stanley Morgan0200
Damion Willis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.10