2025 · Week 8

Final

Jets

New York

QB Justin Fields

39·38

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Flacco

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+7.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBengals
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.012
  • 40.5%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.012
  • 6.5%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.21CPOE+1.28
  • 35.0%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.93
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W3CIN @ NYJ27–12CIN
2021 · W8CIN @ NYJ31–34NYJ
2019 · W13NYJ @ CIN6–22CIN
2016 · W1CIN @ NYJ23–22CIN
2013 · W8NYJ @ CIN9–49CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ CIN24–14NYJ
2009 · W17CIN @ NYJ0–37NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CIN
CINQ1 15:001067Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 10:1447Turnover on downs0–3
CINQ1 8:16535Touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 5:35412Punt0–10
CINQ1 2:5431Punt0–10
NYJQ1 1:16646Field goal3–10
CINQ2 12:12369Touchdown3–17
NYJQ2 10:45978Touchdown10–17
CINQ2 5:181170Touchdown10–24
NYJQ2 1:151053Field goal13–24
NYJQ3 15:00633Punt13–24
CINQ3 12:2534Punt13–24
NYJQ3 10:43985Field goal16–24
CINQ3 6:12865Touchdown16–31
NYJQ3 2:34671Touchdown24–31
CINQ4 14:17773Touchdown24–38
NYJQ4 10:21560Touchdown32–38
CINQ4 7:523-6Punt32–38
NYJQ4 6:50958Touchdown39–38
CINQ4 1:54620Turnover on downs39–38
NYJQ4 0:2700End of half39–38

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields21/3224410
Breece Hall1/1410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall181337.42
Isaiah Davis7659.30
Justin Fields11312.80
Isaiah Williams12525.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Johnson35641
Isaiah Davis55440
Mason Taylor58341
Isaiah Williams34310
Jeremy Ruckert11240
Arian Smith11230
Breece Hall23140
Allen Lazard1250

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/3422320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine99410.41
Chase Brown12736.11
Joe Flacco2147.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase1219910
Tee Higgins12441
Noah Fant33410
Chase Brown33321
Tanner Hudson1290
Samaje Perine1160
Andrei Iosivas0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+7.32