Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.012
- 40.5%Success rate46.4%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.012
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.21CPOE+1.28
- 35.0%Third-down rate44.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.54Points / drive1.93
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 21/32 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 1/1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 18 | 133 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Isaiah Davis | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Isaiah Davis | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 5 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Isaiah Williams | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/34 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 9 | 94 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 12 | 19 | 91 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+7.32