2022 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

27·12

Jets

New York

QB Joe Flacco

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

-1.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJets
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.086
  • 47.8%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.093
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.74CPOE-4.97
  • 47.3%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.41
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYJ @ CIN39–38NYJ
2021 · W8CIN @ NYJ31–34NYJ
2019 · W13NYJ @ CIN6–22CIN
2016 · W1CIN @ NYJ23–22CIN
2013 · W8NYJ @ CIN9–49CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ CIN24–14NYJ
2009 · W17CIN @ NYJ0–37NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NYJ
CINQ1 15:001290Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 9:35938Field goal7–3
CINQ1 5:04316Turnover7–3
NYJQ1 3:45421Field goal7–6
CINQ1 1:49660Touchdown14–6
NYJQ2 15:00828Punt14–6
CINQ2 10:13656Field goal17–6
NYJQ2 7:48411Turnover17–6
CINQ2 6:2635Field goal20–6
NYJQ2 5:2832Punt20–6
CINQ2 4:3331Punt20–6
NYJQ2 3:00727Punt20–6
CINQ2 0:523-7Punt20–6
NYJQ2 0:30513Field goal20–9
NYJQ3 15:003-2Turnover20–9
CINQ3 14:08424Touchdown27–9
NYJQ3 12:02629Turnover on downs27–9
CINQ3 10:161139Turnover on downs27–9
NYJQ3 4:131155Field goal27–12
CINQ3 0:413-5Punt27–12
NYJQ4 14:001154Turnover27–12
CINQ4 10:031252Missed field goal27–12
NYJQ4 2:15752Turnover27–12
CINQ4 0:5500End of half27–12

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3627530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine9475.20
Joe Mixon12242.00
Joe Burrow500.00
Ja'Marr Chase2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd451051
Tee Higgins57930
Ja'Marr Chase610291
Samaje Perine22141
Joe Mixon37140
Mitchell Wilcox1190
Hayden Hurst1270
Chris Evans1140

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/5228502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter11393.50
Breece Hall8394.90
Braxton Berrios1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Conklin88840
Garrett Wilson611600
Breece Hall611530
Elijah Moore49490
Corey Davis25270
Michael Carter1270
C.J. Uzomah1150
Braxton Berrios0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.31