Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
-1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.086
- 47.8%Success rate39.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.093
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.74CPOE-4.97
- 47.3%Third-down rate34.3%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 2.27Points / drive1.41
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/36 | 275 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 105 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 10 | 29 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/52 | 285 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 8 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 6 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.31