Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
42
Model margin
-0.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.069
- 45.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.116EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.070
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.98CPOE-4.70
- 38.9%Third-down rate36.5%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.86Points / drive1.40
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 23/30 | 366 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James Wright | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 12 | 13 | 180 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 4 | 91 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| James Wright | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 19/35 | 189 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 7 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.81