2016 · Week 1

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

23·22

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 79°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

42

Model margin

-0.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapJets
  • +0.052EPA / play-0.069
  • 45.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.070
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.98CPOE-4.70
  • 38.9%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.40
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYJ @ CIN39–38NYJ
2022 · W3CIN @ NYJ27–12CIN
2021 · W8CIN @ NYJ31–34NYJ
2019 · W13NYJ @ CIN6–22CIN
2013 · W8NYJ @ CIN9–49CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ CIN24–14NYJ
2009 · W17CIN @ NYJ0–37NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–NYJ
CINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:291164Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 7:40410Turnover0–7
NYJQ1 6:02726Missed field goal0–7
CINQ1 3:42565Field goal3–7
NYJQ1 1:29626Punt3–7
CINQ2 13:34478Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 11:23624Touchdown10–13
CINQ2 9:383-10Punt10–13
NYJQ2 8:01828Field goal10–16
CINQ2 3:191257Field goal13–16
NYJQ3 15:00512Punt13–16
CINQ3 11:4930Punt13–16
NYJQ3 9:53525Punt13–16
CINQ3 7:18992Touchdown20–16
NYJQ3 3:091173Field goal20–19
CINQ4 11:26541Missed field goal20–19
NYJQ4 9:02962Field goal20–22
CINQ4 3:23840Field goal23–22
NYJQ4 0:5430Turnover23–22
CINQ4 0:4000End of half23–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton23/3036611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill9313.41
Giovani Bernard5255.00
Andy Dalton372.30
James Wright2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green12131801
Brandon LaFell44910
C.J. Uzomah25590
Tyler Boyd23240
James Wright1170
Giovani Bernard2450

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick19/3518921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte22964.40
Bilal Powell44110.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte57590
Quincy Enunwa78541
Eric Decker27371
Brandon Marshall38320
Bilal Powell2470

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.81