Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
34
Model margin
-0.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.019
- 39.7%Success rate42.9%
- -0.151EPA / dropback+0.038
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.082
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -5.62CPOE-0.82
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.6%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.65
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 12/15 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 4 | 99 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/36 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 21 | 169 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 6 | 11 | 48 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Quan Cosby | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.18