2009 · WC

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

24·14

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 21°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

34

Model margin

-0.2est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBengals
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.019
  • 39.7%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback+0.038
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.082
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -5.62CPOE-0.82
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.65
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYJ @ CIN39–38NYJ
2022 · W3CIN @ NYJ27–12CIN
2021 · W8CIN @ NYJ31–34NYJ
2019 · W13NYJ @ CIN6–22CIN
2016 · W1CIN @ NYJ23–22CIN
2013 · W8NYJ @ CIN9–49CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · W17CIN @ NYJ0–37NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CIN
CINQ1 15:00310Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 14:01514Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:10745Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 7:07520Punt0–7
CINQ1 3:5437Punt0–7
NYJQ1 2:15626Punt0–7
CINQ2 14:4939Punt0–7
NYJQ2 12:41247Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 11:52735Turnover7–7
NYJQ2 8:26457Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 6:196-3Punt14–7
NYJQ2 2:1832Punt14–7
CINQ2 0:2822End of half14–7
NYJQ3 15:00734Punt14–7
CINQ3 10:10845Missed field goal14–7
NYJQ3 6:24875Touchdown21–7
CINQ3 2:18731Punt21–7
NYJQ4 14:1138Punt21–7
CINQ4 11:56256Touchdown21–14
NYJQ4 11:04766Field goal24–14
CINQ4 5:471337Missed field goal24–14
NYJQ4 3:4936Punt24–14
CINQ4 3:2767Turnover on downs24–14
NYJQ4 1:5600End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez12/1518210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene211356.41
Thomas Jones15342.31
Brad Smith242.00
Mark Sanchez3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller34991
Jerricho Cotchery66670
Braylon Edwards24150
Brad Smith1110

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer18/3614611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson211698.01
Carson Palmer122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles611481
Chad Johnson26280
Quan Cosby34260
Andre Caldwell28250
Cedric Benson33120
Brian Leonard2370
Daniel Coats0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.18