Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play+0.031
- 37.6%Success rate43.4%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.109
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.00CPOE+1.24
- 38.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
- 1.25Points / drive1.76
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/30 | 159 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Simms | 3/7 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Simms | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Nelson | 8 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 4 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Campbell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/30 | 325 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 8 | 122 | 4 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.84