2013 · Week 8

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

9·49

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBengals
  • -0.105EPA / play+0.031
  • 37.6%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.109
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.00CPOE+1.24
  • 38.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate73.3%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.76
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.4 points. CIN are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYJ @ CIN39–38NYJ
2022 · W3CIN @ NYJ27–12CIN
2021 · W8CIN @ NYJ31–34NYJ
2019 · W13NYJ @ CIN6–22CIN
2016 · W1CIN @ NYJ23–22CIN
2010 · W12CIN @ NYJ10–26NYJ
2009 · playoffsNYJ @ CIN24–14NYJ
2009 · W17CIN @ NYJ0–37NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CIN
CINQ1 15:001151Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:593-5Punt0–7
CINQ1 8:22768Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 4:2166Punt0–14
CINQ1 0:48562Turnover on downs0–14
NYJQ2 13:5639Punt0–14
CINQ2 11:443-2Turnover0–14
NYJQ2 11:00413Field goal3–14
CINQ2 9:09886Touchdown3–21
NYJQ2 6:13950Field goal6–21
CINQ2 1:08429Touchdown6–28
NYJQ2 0:1617End of half6–28
NYJQ3 15:0010Opp touchdown6–35
NYJQ3 14:4538Punt6–35
CINQ3 13:0436Punt6–35
NYJQ3 11:261337Field goal9–35
CINQ3 4:49774Touchdown9–42
NYJQ3 1:13842Opp touchdown9–49
NYJQ4 13:09615Punt9–49
CINQ4 10:1536Punt9–49
NYJQ4 8:18846Turnover on downs9–49
CINQ4 5:13622Punt9–49
NYJQ4 1:07212End of half9–49

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/3015902
Matt Simms3/71700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Simms33511.70
Alex Green3206.70
Bilal Powell10191.90
Chris Ivory6111.80
Geno Smith284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Nelson812800
Jeremy Kerley34270
Stephen Hill47230
Bilal Powell46200
Zach Sudfeld22100
Jeff Cumberland1290
Alex Green1170
Michael Campbell0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/3032551

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis11333.00
Giovani Bernard5183.60
Josh Johnson3175.70
Cedric Peerman6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones881224
A.J. Green371150
Mohamed Sanu13240
Tyler Eifert24230
Dane Sanzenbacher22180
Jermaine Gresham23141
Giovani Bernard1290
Brandon Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.84