2001 · Week 14

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

3·29

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Husky Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

SEA -5.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.018
  • 36.1%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.132EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.080
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 32.7%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 32.6%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.20
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.034EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00870Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 10:1732Punt0–7
SEAQ1 8:391266Field goal0–10
DALQ1 2:581158Field goal3–10
SEAQ2 12:4264Punt3–10
DALQ2 10:4669Punt3–10
SEAQ2 8:033-8Punt3–10
DALQ2 7:06640Punt3–10
SEAQ2 4:27945Turnover on downs3–10
DALQ2 1:02733Turnover on downs3–10
DALQ3 15:0034Punt3–10
SEAQ3 13:2749Turnover on downs3–10
DALQ3 11:2339Punt3–10
SEAQ3 9:3738Punt3–10
DALQ3 8:33414Punt3–10
SEAQ3 6:27524Safety3–12
SEAQ3 3:481022Field goal3–15
DALQ4 13:10511Punt3–15
SEAQ4 11:581062Touchdown3–22
DALQ4 6:3710Opp touchdown3–29
SEAQ4 6:1900Opp touchdown3–29
DALQ4 6:19938Turnover on downs3–29
SEAQ4 1:14310End of half3–29

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter14/3313501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quincy Carter6406.70
Emmitt Smith12393.30
Raghib Ismail22010.00
Troy Hambrick133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway713820
Raghib Ismail39240
Darrin Chiaverini14170
Michael Wiley1180
J.J. Huggins2240
Jackie Harris0200
Emmitt Smith0100
Reggie Swinton0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck13/2515200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters281043.71
Shaun Alexander7273.91
Matt Hasselbeck3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Jackson47850
Ricky Watters57340
Koren Robinson24190
Christian Fauria24140
Bobby Engram0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.29