Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.018
- 36.1%Success rate38.9%
- -0.132EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.080
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- 32.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 0.93Points / drive1.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 14/33 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 7 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 9 | 24 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 13/25 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 28 | 104 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Ricky Watters | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.29