2020 · Week 3

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

31·38

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -5.5

Total

58

Model margin

-0.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.105
  • 46.1%Success rate48.8%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.013
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.42CPOE+6.78
  • 41.5%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.52
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:301255Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 8:10475Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 6:391-1Safety3–9
SEAQ1 6:3632Punt3–9
DALQ1 4:47865Touchdown9–9
SEAQ1 1:40374Turnover9–9
DALQ1 0:1230Punt9–9
SEAQ2 14:5235Punt9–9
DALQ2 13:2033Punt9–9
SEAQ2 11:311444Touchdown9–16
DALQ2 6:53375Touchdown15–16
SEAQ2 6:05828Punt15–16
DALQ2 1:0325Turnover15–16
SEAQ2 0:36534Touchdown15–23
DALQ2 0:0700End of half15–23
DALQ3 15:001-7Turnover15–23
SEAQ3 14:5225Touchdown15–30
DALQ3 14:14821Punt15–30
SEAQ3 10:34610Punt15–30
DALQ3 6:26394Touchdown22–30
SEAQ3 5:47830Punt22–30
DALQ3 1:29989Touchdown28–30
SEAQ4 13:07625Punt28–30
DALQ4 9:541570Field goal31–30
SEAQ4 3:59975Touchdown31–38
DALQ4 1:471254Turnover31–38
SEAQ4 0:0600End of half31–38

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott37/5747232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott14342.41
Dak Prescott6264.30
CeeDee Lamb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup691381
Cedrick Wilson Jr.571072
Amari Cooper912860
CeeDee Lamb57650
Dalton Schultz46480
Ezekiel Elliott611240
Noah Brown1290
Blake Bell0100
Tony Pollard11-50

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson27/4031550

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson14644.60
Russell Wilson6223.70
Travis Homer2199.50
Carlos Hyde4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf481101
Tyler Lockett9131003
Greg Olsen56610
Freddie Swain11130
Chris Carson33120
Carlos Hyde11110
Will Dissly2250
David Moore1120
Jacob Hollister1211
Travis Homer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.18