Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
58
Model margin
-0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.105
- 46.1%Success rate48.8%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.013
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.42CPOE+6.78
- 41.5%Third-down rate39.6%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 1.87Points / drive2.52
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 37/57 | 472 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 9 | 138 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 5 | 7 | 107 | 2 |
| Amari Cooper | 9 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 11 | 24 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/40 | 315 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 8 | 110 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 13 | 100 | 3 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.18