Closing spread
DAL -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.009
- 44.2%Success rate43.9%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.060
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- +7.30CPOE+1.03
- 38.7%Third-down rate41.3%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.23Points / drive1.93
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/27 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 13 | 20 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 120 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/33 | 226 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 26 | 137 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.42