2018 · WC

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

22·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCowboys
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.009
  • 44.2%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.208EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.060
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +7.30CPOE+1.03
  • 38.7%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.93
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DAL
DALQ1 15:00954Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 9:5038Punt0–3
DALQ1 8:17625Punt0–3
SEAQ1 5:3230Punt0–3
DALQ1 3:1749Punt0–3
SEAQ1 2:103-3Punt0–3
DALQ2 15:00731Punt0–3
SEAQ2 9:48569Field goal3–3
DALQ2 7:03730Missed field goal3–3
SEAQ2 3:12528Field goal6–3
DALQ2 1:43775Touchdown6–10
SEAQ2 0:24310Missed field goal6–10
SEAQ3 15:0034Punt6–10
DALQ3 13:2139Punt6–10
SEAQ3 11:07640Punt6–10
DALQ3 7:5431Punt6–10
SEAQ3 7:00944Touchdown14–10
DALQ3 1:59967Touchdown14–17
SEAQ4 12:2834Punt14–17
DALQ4 10:51327Turnover14–17
SEAQ4 9:34420Punt14–17
DALQ4 7:201454Touchdown14–24
SEAQ4 2:08675Touchdown22–24
DALQ4 1:1800End of half22–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2723310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny4297.30
Chris Carson13201.50
Russell Wilson3144.71
Mike Davis4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett461200
Ed Dickson45420
Doug Baldwin36320
Mike Davis22220
J.D. McKissic23131
Nick Vannett1250
Chris Carson23-10

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3322611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott261375.31
Dak Prescott6294.81
Rod Smith111.00
Tavon Austin1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper791060
Ezekiel Elliott45320
Cole Beasley33280
Michael Gallup26181
Blake Jarwin33150
Allen Hurns11140
Tavon Austin1170
Noah Brown1460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.42