Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
40
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.093
- 43.9%Success rate44.2%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.2%
- +1.03CPOE+7.30
- 41.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.93Points / drive2.23
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/34 | 168 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 127 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Swaim | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/26 | 192 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 32 | 102 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.98