2018 · Week 3

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

13·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

40

Model margin

+3.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.093
  • 43.9%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.208
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.027
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +1.03CPOE+7.30
  • 41.3%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.23
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SEA
DALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:321239Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:48325Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 5:3336Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:2569Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:4234Punt0–0
DALQ2 15:0031Punt0–0
SEAQ2 13:201064Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 9:28853Field goal3–7
SEAQ2 5:26775Touchdown3–14
DALQ2 1:5231Punt3–14
SEAQ2 0:49514Field goal3–17
SEAQ3 15:0034Punt3–17
DALQ3 13:2538Punt3–17
SEAQ3 11:063-7Punt3–17
DALQ3 9:00854Field goal6–17
SEAQ3 3:431071Touchdown6–24
DALQ4 12:54546Turnover6–24
SEAQ4 10:4636Punt6–24
DALQ4 8:43549Touchdown13–24
SEAQ4 7:1136Punt13–24
DALQ4 5:30846Turnover13–24
SEAQ4 3:09614Punt13–24
DALQ4 1:0548Turnover on downs13–24
SEAQ4 0:3700End of half13–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/3416812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott161277.90
Dak Prescott22110.50
Tavon Austin11818.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Geoff Swaim57470
Cole Beasley35460
Deonte Thompson22230
Allen Hurns24220
Michael Gallup14170
Ezekiel Elliott38110
Tavon Austin3321
Blake Jarwin0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/2619220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson321023.21
Tyler Lockett155.00
Rashaad Penny351.70
Russell Wilson2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett46771
Brandon Marshall26300
Nick Vannett45270
Jaron Brown22251
Chris Carson22220
Mike Davis1170
Will Dissly1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.98