2014 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

30·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -10

Total

47

Model margin

+3.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.117EPA / play+0.091
  • 46.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.068EPA / rush+0.030
  • 10.8%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +5.68CPOE+4.40
  • 47.6%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.06
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00964Field goal0–3
DALQ1 10:06618Opp touchdown0–10
DALQ1 7:13980Touchdown7–10
SEAQ1 2:3443Punt7–10
DALQ2 15:001671Field goal10–10
SEAQ2 5:15313Punt10–10
DALQ2 3:041065Touchdown17–10
SEAQ2 0:1623End of half17–10
DALQ3 15:00820Punt17–10
SEAQ3 9:52539Punt17–10
SEAQ3 6:57214Touchdown17–17
DALQ3 6:1934Turnover17–17
SEAQ3 4:46310Field goal17–20
DALQ3 3:20448Field goal20–20
SEAQ3 1:04934Punt20–20
DALQ4 12:1341Punt20–20
SEAQ4 10:44612Field goal20–23
DALQ4 8:161090Touchdown27–23
SEAQ4 3:1644Turnover on downs27–23
DALQ4 2:3545Field goal30–23
SEAQ4 1:09210Turnover30–23
DALQ4 0:4200End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo21/3225020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray281154.11
Joseph Randle55210.40
Tony Romo2-1-0.50
Lance Dunbar1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams22700
Dez Bryant410630
Lance Dunbar44480
DeMarco Murray66310
Jason Witten25241
Cole Beasley12110
Gavin Escobar1221

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2812601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch10616.10
Russell Wilson2126.01
Robert Turbin2105.00
Percy Harvin3-1-0.30
Bryan Walters1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse37620
Doug Baldwin23320
Luke Willson26110
Ricardo Lockette1180
Cooper Helfet1170
Bryan Walters1350
Marshawn Lynch1210
Percy Harvin3400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.19