Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
47
Model margin
+3.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play+0.091
- 46.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.286EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.068EPA / rush+0.030
- 10.8%Explosive rate11.7%
- +5.68CPOE+4.40
- 47.6%Third-down rate43.4%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 2.36Points / drive2.06
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/32 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 28 | 115 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 5 | 52 | 10.4 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 2 | 70 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/28 | 126 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.19