2017 · Week 16

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

21·12

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCowboys
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.008
  • 41.3%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.192EPA / rush+0.027
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.52CPOE-0.45
  • 37.4%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.85
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DAL
DALQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SEAQ1 14:06822Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:351043Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:0630Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:011042Field goal0–3
SEAQ2 14:1156Punt0–3
DALQ2 11:12940Field goal0–6
SEAQ2 5:483-17Punt0–6
DALQ2 4:1017Turnover0–6
SEAQ2 4:02635Touchdown7–6
DALQ2 1:38744Field goal7–9
SEAQ2 0:0300End of half7–9
SEAQ3 15:0059Punt7–9
DALQ3 11:5923Opp touchdown14–9
DALQ3 11:195-4Field goal14–12
SEAQ3 8:3636Punt14–12
DALQ3 6:31639Turnover14–12
SEAQ3 3:241464Touchdown21–12
DALQ4 11:591340Missed field goal21–12
SEAQ4 5:39715Punt21–12
DALQ4 2:40726Missed field goal21–12
SEAQ4 1:0000End of half21–12

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/219320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson9293.20
Mike Davis15251.70
Thomas Rawls5204.00
Tyler Lockett122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin46351
Paul Richardson24210
Mike Davis45180
Luke Willson2290
Tyler Lockett1270
Jimmy Graham1131

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3418102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott24974.00
Dak Prescott4215.30
Rod Smith2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant36430
Terrance Williams44430
Jason Witten59390
Rod Smith33230
Ezekiel Elliott47210
Cole Beasley23120
Noah Brown0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62