Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.008
- 41.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.192EPA / rush+0.027
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.52CPOE-0.45
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.68Points / drive1.85
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/21 | 93 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 15 | 25 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/34 | 181 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 24 | 97 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62