2012 · Week 2

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

7·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

43

Model margin

+5.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

6.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.109
  • 47.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.213
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.005
  • 7.3%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +3.18CPOE+5.50
  • 43.3%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.17
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–SEA
DALQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
SEAQ1 14:53618Field goal0–3
DALQ1 11:4335Opp touchdown0–10
DALQ1 10:23956Turnover0–10
SEAQ1 6:22310Punt0–10
DALQ1 4:401598Touchdown7–10
SEAQ2 12:0937Punt7–10
DALQ2 10:4938Punt7–10
SEAQ2 9:021177Field goal7–13
DALQ2 1:57745Punt7–13
SEAQ2 0:3536Punt7–13
DALQ2 0:1000End of half7–13
SEAQ3 15:00412Punt7–13
DALQ3 12:44517Punt7–13
SEAQ3 9:43890Touchdown7–20
DALQ3 5:05821Punt7–20
SEAQ3 0:321278Touchdown7–27
DALQ4 7:573-4Punt7–27
SEAQ4 7:041417Turnover on downs7–27
DALQ4 0:36351End of half7–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/4025111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray12443.70
Kevin Ogletree155.00
Felix Jones111.00
Tony Romo2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin510631
Jason Witten411580
Felix Jones45400
DeMarco Murray44310
Kevin Ogletree11260
Dez Bryant37170
John Phillips22160

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2015110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch261224.71
Russell Wilson4287.00
Robert Turbin5153.00
Leon Washington4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony McCoy55411
Golden Tate34380
Sidney Rice35330
Robert Turbin22240
Doug Baldwin1180
Zach Miller1170
Leon Washington0100
Evan Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

6.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+5.85