Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
43
Model margin
+5.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
6.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.109
- 47.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.005
- 7.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- +3.18CPOE+5.50
- 43.3%Third-down rate39.8%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.79Points / drive2.17
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/40 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 5 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/20 | 151 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 26 | 122 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony McCoy | 5 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+5.85