Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.073
- 47.1%Success rate43.9%
- +0.255EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- +7.64CPOE-0.85
- 47.8%Third-down rate34.0%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
- 2.18Points / drive1.31
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/30 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/25 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren McFadden | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.64