2015 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

13·12

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Matt Cassel

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCowboys
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.073
  • 47.1%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +7.64CPOE-0.85
  • 47.8%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate42.4%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.31
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DAL
SEAQ1 15:001172Field goal3–0
DALQ1 8:471470Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 0:4334Punt3–3
DALQ2 14:4637Punt3–3
SEAQ2 12:3032Punt3–3
DALQ2 10:4431Punt3–3
SEAQ2 9:07765Touchdown10–3
DALQ2 5:29958Field goal10–6
SEAQ2 1:34411Punt10–6
DALQ2 0:1200End of half10–6
DALQ3 15:001251Field goal10–9
SEAQ3 8:5136Punt10–9
DALQ3 7:17626Punt10–9
SEAQ3 3:19534Turnover10–9
DALQ3 0:1537Field goal10–12
SEAQ4 14:27951Missed field goal10–12
DALQ4 8:5937Punt10–12
SEAQ4 6:411679Field goal13–12
DALQ4 1:066-6Turnover on downs13–12
SEAQ4 0:0100End of half13–12

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/3021011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21713.40
Russell Wilson6325.30
Thomas Rawls4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham710750
Luke Willson22411
Tyler Lockett34360
Doug Baldwin36350
Marshawn Lynch22110
Fred Jackson1190
Ricardo Lockette1230
Chris Matthews0100
Jermaine Kearse0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel13/259700
Darren McFadden0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren McFadden20643.20
Matt Cassel44310.80
Christine Michael5204.00
Lucky Whitehead122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren McFadden68490
Terrance Williams22200
Jason Witten24160
Dez Bryant26120
Cole Beasley0100
James Hanna1200
Christine Michael0200
Rod Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.64