2023 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

35·41

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -9.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCowboys
  • +0.032EPA / play+0.121
  • 44.6%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.061
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.54CPOE+3.68
  • 36.3%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 49.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.00Points / drive2.67
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA
2011 · W9SEA @ DAL13–23DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–DAL
DALQ1 15:001363Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 9:10380Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 7:28628Touchdown7–10
SEAQ1 4:48857Missed field goal7–10
DALQ1 0:581273Touchdown7–17
SEAQ2 11:37922Touchdown14–17
DALQ2 8:541672Field goal14–20
SEAQ2 1:301036Touchdown21–20
DALQ2 0:0400End of half21–20
SEAQ3 15:001060Touchdown28–20
DALQ3 10:011753Touchdown28–27
SEAQ3 3:4133Turnover28–27
DALQ3 2:5648Turnover on downs28–27
SEAQ3 1:04570Touchdown35–27
DALQ4 14:17621Field goal35–30
SEAQ4 11:231029Turnover on downs35–30
DALQ4 7:04759Touchdown35–38
SEAQ4 4:37524Turnover on downs35–38
DALQ4 3:11535Field goal35–41
SEAQ4 1:43525Turnover on downs35–41
DALQ4 1:0700End of half35–41

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/4133431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet19603.21
Geno Smith263.01
DeeJay Dallas166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf681343
Jaxon Smith-Njigba711620
Tyler Lockett58470
Noah Fant34430
Zach Charbonnet12390
Jake Bobo1190
Will Dissly0200
DeeJay Dallas0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott29/4129930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard20683.41
CeeDee Lamb23015.00
Dak Prescott7233.30
Rico Dowdle5153.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb12171161
Jake Ferguson68771
Brandin Cooks44451
Jalen Tolbert11170
Tony Pollard34150
Luke Schoonmaker11120
KaVontae Turpin13100
Rico Dowdle1170
Michael Gallup0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

47.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.86