Closing spread
DAL -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.121
- 44.6%Success rate48.0%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.061
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.54CPOE+3.68
- 36.3%Third-down rate49.6%
- 49.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.00Points / drive2.67
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/41 | 334 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 8 | 134 | 3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 29/41 | 299 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 12 | 17 | 116 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.86