2001 · Week 14 · Division

Final / OT

Broncos

Denver

QB Gus Frerotte

23·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.044EPA / play+0.014
  • 42.2%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.075EPA / rush+0.032
  • 6.2%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 37.7%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.54
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.011

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:401049Field goal0–3
DENQ1 6:0438Punt0–3
KCQ1 4:22417Touchdown0–10
DENQ1 3:23518Punt0–10
KCQ1 0:0934Punt0–10
DENQ2 13:38763Touchdown7–10
KCQ2 9:291052Field goal7–13
DENQ2 4:291039Field goal10–13
KCQ2 0:201-1End of half10–13
KCQ3 15:0000Missed field goal10–13
DENQ3 14:4830Missed field goal10–13
KCQ3 13:20665Touchdown10–20
DENQ3 10:371184Touchdown17–20
KCQ3 5:08638Turnover17–20
DENQ3 1:45532Field goal20–20
KCQ4 14:20866Missed field goal20–20
DENQ4 9:32722Turnover20–20
KCQ4 6:443-1Field goal20–23
DENQ4 5:12840Field goal23–23
KCQ4 1:13636Turnover23–23
DENQ4 0:021-1End of half23–23
DENOT514Punt23–23
KCOT515Missed field goal23–23
DENOT31Punt23–23
KCOT156Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte16/2218110
Jarious Jackson7/127300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrell Davis21703.30
Gus Frerotte4123.01
Mike Anderson188.00
Jarious Jackson571.40
Scottie Montgomery155.00
Kevin Kasper2-8-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith8151001
Patrick Hape22350
Kevin Kasper22300
Chris Cole11190
Terrell Davis1250
Tony Carter3330
Scottie Montgomery0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green17/2129211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes291214.21
Eddie Kennison11414.00
Trent Green1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Snoop Minnis56890
Derrick Alexander45721
Eddie Kennison34620
Tony Gonzalez33530
Priest Holmes1180
Mikhael Ricks1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.85