Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.014
- 42.2%Success rate43.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.032
- 6.2%Explosive rate10.8%
- 37.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.49Points / drive1.54
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 16/22 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
| Jarious Jackson | 7/12 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Davis | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jarious Jackson | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 15 | 100 | 1 |
| Patrick Hape | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Cole | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 17/21 | 292 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 29 | 121 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snoop Minnis | 5 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.05
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85