Closing spread
CLE -2
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play-0.113
- 40.8%Success rate36.9%
- -0.233EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.1%
- 34.6%Third-down rate31.3%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 0.28Points / drive1.05
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.096
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 20/35 | 202 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 28 | 115 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 7 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 21/30 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamel White | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Gay | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Andre King | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Benjamin Gay | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Rod Monroe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23