2001 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

15·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -2

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.282EPA / play-0.113
  • 40.8%Success rate36.9%
  • -0.233EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.375EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 26.3%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 0.28Points / drive1.05
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.096

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CLE
JAXQ1 15:001572Touchdown6–0
CLEQ1 6:1234Turnover6–0
JAXQ1 5:14415Field goal9–0
CLEQ1 3:371044Punt9–0
JAXQ2 13:26522Punt9–0
CLEQ2 10:31640Punt9–0
JAXQ2 7:0936Punt9–0
JAXQ2 5:053-7Punt9–0
CLEQ2 3:42835Turnover on downs9–0
JAXQ2 0:447-10Turnover9–0
CLEQ3 15:00930Turnover on downs9–0
JAXQ3 10:051573Opp touchdown9–7
CLEQ3 2:2800Opp touchdown9–7
JAXQ3 2:281051Field goal12–7
CLEQ4 12:2036Punt12–7
JAXQ4 11:173-4Turnover12–7
CLEQ4 10:2037Field goal12–10
JAXQ4 8:091567Field goal15–10
CLEQ4 2:57954Turnover on downs15–10
JAXQ4 0:482-3End of half15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell20/3520212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stacey Mack281154.10
Mark Brunell5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan McCardell710610
Jimmy Smith510521
Kyle Brady34440
Stacey Mack35240
Sean Dawkins1590

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch21/3018401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamel White9333.70
Tim Couch273.50
James Jackson263.00
Benjamin Gay210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JaJuan Dawson13440
Jamel White55390
Andre King45350
Kevin Johnson35340
O.J. Santiago34230
James Jackson1150
Benjamin Gay2220
Quincy Morgan2420
Rod Monroe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.23