Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.101
- 42.2%Success rate39.1%
- -0.012EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- 42.5%Third-down rate33.9%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
- 1.40Points / drive0.89
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed+0.064
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 18/38 | 243 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 7 | 13 | 144 | 2 |
| Cris Carter | 3 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McMahon | 15/28 | 241 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 20 | 91 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.58