2001 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Todd Bouman

24·27

Lions

Detroit

QB Mike McMahon

Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.101
  • 42.2%Success rate39.1%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.192
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.8%
  • 42.5%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate47.0%
  • 1.40Points / drive0.89
  • 3.7%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.044EPA / play allowed+0.064

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:58618Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:1159Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:47333Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 6:1800Opp touchdown0–7
MINQ1 6:1839Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:52411Opp touchdown7–7
MINQ1 2:1100Opp touchdown7–7
DETQ1 2:11471Touchdown7–14
MINQ1 0:55418Punt7–14
DETQ2 14:32938Punt7–14
MINQ2 10:4410Turnover7–14
DETQ2 10:36414Field goal7–17
MINQ2 9:0630Punt7–17
DETQ2 7:16819Punt7–17
MINQ2 4:064-1Punt7–17
DETQ2 2:48962Field goal7–20
MINQ3 15:00524Field goal10–20
DETQ3 12:2345Punt10–20
MINQ3 9:54495Touchdown17–20
DETQ3 7:1237Punt17–20
MINQ3 5:30855Touchdown24–20
DETQ3 1:511490Touchdown24–27
MINQ4 10:36934Punt24–27
DETQ4 5:21741Punt24–27
MINQ4 1:00829Turnover on downs24–27
DETQ4 0:031-1End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Bouman18/3824322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Bennett10404.00
Todd Bouman33110.30
Doug Chapman393.00
Travis Prentice100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss7131442
Cris Carter38300
Chris Walsh24290
Doug Chapman33170
Byron Chamberlain23140
Jake Reed1390
Michael Bennett0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike McMahon15/2824100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart20914.50
Mike McMahon12746.21
Aveion Cason111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnnie Morton47740
Scotty Anderson15690
David Sloan57640
Lamont Warren22130
Larry Foster13120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.58