Closing spread
OAK -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:54 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:27 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:27 | 13 | 64 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 10:49 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 8:19 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 6:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:39 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:29 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 64 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 10:50 | 10 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 5:45 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 5:17 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 2:57 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q4 14:50 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LV | Q4 13:16 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q4 11:35 | 10 | 36 | Turnover | 10–6 |
| LV | Q4 5:53 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| LAC | Q4 1:07 | 6 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 13–6 |
| LV | Q4 0:15 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–6 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.