2001 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.103
- 39.2%Success rate38.9%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 31.5%Third-down rate34.9%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.34Points / drive1.18
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/34 | 235 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 8 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 2 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 17/36 | 213 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.58