2001 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

20·6

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.103
  • 39.2%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.031EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 31.5%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.18
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:5632Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:5636Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:0833Turnover0–0
WASQ1 10:13420Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 8:3736Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:25840Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 3:17530Punt0–3
WASQ1 0:0000Field goal0–3
WASQ2 15:00670Field goal0–6
PHIQ2 12:071166Touchdown7–6
WASQ2 7:3232Punt7–6
PHIQ2 5:4810Turnover7–6
WASQ2 5:35418Punt7–6
PHIQ2 3:0532Punt7–6
PHIQ2 1:53722Field goal10–6
WASQ2 0:0410End of half10–6
PHIQ3 15:0033Punt10–6
WASQ3 13:50947Missed field goal16–6
PHIQ3 8:37162Touchdown17–6
WASQ3 8:26519Punt17–6
PHIQ3 7:14419Punt17–6
WASQ3 4:45758Turnover17–6
PHIQ3 1:35849Field goal20–6
WASQ4 12:29833Punt20–6
PHIQ4 7:3510Turnover20–6
WASQ4 7:28515Turnover on downs20–6
PHIQ4 5:2927Turnover20–6
WASQ4 4:43326Turnover20–6
PHIQ4 3:10616End of half20–6

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb16/3423523

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley15362.40
Donovan McNabb7253.60
Correll Buckhalter122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Pinkston25771
Duce Staley811730
Freddie Mitchell24271
Chad Lewis13250
Correll Buckhalter13180
James Thrash24150
Na Brown0100
Cecil Martin0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks17/3621302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis241114.60
Rod Gardner11616.00
Tony Banks3155.00
Ki-Jana Carter11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Gardner35700
Michael Westbrook49480
Stephen Davis35350
Walter Rasby25320
Kevin Lockett1360
Zeron Flemister2440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.58