Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.088
- 42.5%Success rate39.6%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.166
- 11.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 45.8%Third-down rate36.2%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 1.58Points / drive1.28
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 12:16 | 14 | 68 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BAL | Q1 3:48 | 9 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 14:50 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| BAL | Q2 9:29 | 6 | 23 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| PIT | Q2 6:00 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| BAL | Q2 1:52 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| PIT | Q2 1:15 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 13–7 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 18 | 75 | Missed field goal | 13–7 |
| BAL | Q3 3:45 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 13–7 |
| PIT | Q3 2:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–7 |
| BAL | Q3 1:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–7 |
| PIT | Q3 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 13–7 |
| PIT | Q4 15:00 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 13–7 |
| BAL | Q4 11:38 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 13–7 |
| PIT | Q4 10:24 | 3 | 93 | Touchdown | 19–7 |
| BAL | Q4 8:53 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 19–14 |
| PIT | Q4 6:36 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 26–14 |
| BAL | Q4 3:05 | 11 | 53 | Touchdown | 26–21 |
| PIT | Q4 1:14 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 26–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 20/31 | 333 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 8 | 12 | 164 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 3 | 100 | 1 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Cushing | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 20/38 | 159 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 4 | 10 | 53 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.45