2001 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

3·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

Total

33

Model margin

+3.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBears
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.063
  • 39.6%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.099
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 35.3%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 42.8%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.28
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.146

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
TBQ1 14:07834Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:32958Field goal0–3
TBQ1 5:43626Punt0–3
CHIQ1 2:5931Punt0–3
TBQ1 0:5610Turnover0–3
CHIQ1 0:4637Punt0–3
TBQ2 14:4732Punt0–3
CHIQ2 13:1835Punt0–3
TBQ2 12:1633Punt0–3
CHIQ2 10:4210Turnover0–3
TBQ2 10:34517Field goal3–3
CHIQ2 7:50669Touchdown3–10
TBQ2 4:36348Turnover3–10
CHIQ2 3:2337Punt3–10
TBQ2 2:20520Turnover3–10
CHIQ2 0:58635Field goal3–13
TBQ3 15:0031Punt3–13
CHIQ3 13:21969Touchdown3–20
TBQ3 8:11526Punt3–20
CHIQ3 6:163-6Punt3–20
TBQ3 5:11413Punt3–20
CHIQ3 3:39427Punt3–20
TBQ3 1:1630Punt3–20
CHIQ3 0:49745Touchdown3–27
TBQ4 11:25628Turnover on downs3–27
CHIQ4 9:29516Turnover on downs3–27
TBQ4 6:48420Turnover3–27
CHIQ4 6:09940End of half3–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson18/4019102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn10272.70
Brad Johnson11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson7151190
Warrick Dunn410280
Karl Williams25180
Dave Moore22140
Jacquez Green0300

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller14/2919021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas311735.61
Marty Booker11313.00
Leon Johnson3113.70
James Allen294.50
Jim Miller310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Terrell34940
Dez White37320
Fred Baxter24281
Marty Booker39191
John Davis1180
Anthony Thomas1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.21