2001 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
33
Model margin
+3.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.063
- 39.6%Success rate39.4%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.099
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.3%Third-down rate33.3%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.43Points / drive1.28
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/40 | 191 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 7 | 15 | 119 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 14/29 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 31 | 173 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Terrell | 3 | 4 | 94 | 0 |
| Dez White | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 3 | 9 | 19 | 1 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21