2001 · Week 15

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

20·15

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

33

Model margin

+1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.103
  • 39.4%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.033EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.105
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.18
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–WAS
CHIQ1 15:0000Turnover0–0
WASQ1 14:523-2Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 13:34745Field goal3–0
WASQ1 10:281257Touchdown3–7
CHIQ1 4:39417Punt3–7
WASQ1 3:0037Punt3–7
CHIQ1 1:27449Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 14:521154Field goal10–10
CHIQ2 7:50612Punt10–10
WASQ2 4:40621Punt10–10
CHIQ2 1:4636Punt10–10
WASQ2 0:45620Turnover on downs10–10
CHIQ2 0:111-1End of half10–10
WASQ3 15:00618Punt10–10
CHIQ3 11:2632Punt10–10
WASQ3 9:521172Field goal10–13
CHIQ3 4:543-2Punt10–13
WASQ3 3:503-9Punt10–13
CHIQ3 2:061673Touchdown17–13
WASQ4 9:5530Punt17–13
CHIQ4 9:16419Punt17–13
WASQ4 7:1130Punt17–13
CHIQ4 5:43422Field goal20–13
WASQ4 3:231255Turnover on downs20–13
CHIQ4 1:254-4Safety20–15
WASQ4 0:2000Turnover20–15
CHIQ4 0:121-1Turnover20–15

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller13/269800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas24823.40
Leon Johnson23417.01
James Allen263.00
Jim Miller300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker713740
Dez White2350
David Terrell1340
James Allen0100
John Davis0100
Anthony Thomas11-10

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks23/4323600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis22572.61
Ki-Jana Carter5285.60
Tony Banks144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook79660
Rod Gardner610630
Zeron Flemister25440
Kevin Lockett14130
Ki-Jana Carter1290
Stephen Davis2390
Eric Metcalf1210
Walter Rasby0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.82