2001 · Week 15
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
33
Model margin
+1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.103
- 39.4%Success rate38.9%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- 33.3%Third-down rate34.9%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.28Points / drive1.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 13/26 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 24 | 82 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 1 |
| James Allen | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 7 | 13 | 74 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| James Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 23/43 | 236 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 22 | 57 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 7 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 6 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82