2016 · Week 16
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
49
Model margin
-0.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.042
- 48.2%Success rate44.1%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- +4.99CPOE-0.10
- 44.9%Third-down rate37.8%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 2.32Points / drive1.41
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/29 | 270 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Brown | 8 | 82 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Rob Kelley | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 7 | 114 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 5 | 94 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Brown | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 24/40 | 323 | 2 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 18 | 119 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Meredith | 9 | 12 | 135 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.79