2016 · Week 16

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

41·21

Bears

Chicago

QB Matt Barkley

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

49

Model margin

-0.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBears
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.042
  • 48.2%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.111
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +4.99CPOE-0.10
  • 44.9%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.41
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS
2010 · W7WAS @ CHI17–14WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CHI
WASQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:3733Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:18865Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 7:431166Missed field goal7–0
WASQ1 3:22580Touchdown14–0
CHIQ1 0:57336Turnover14–0
WASQ2 14:47888Field goal17–0
CHIQ2 10:07860Touchdown17–7
WASQ2 6:201067Touchdown24–7
CHIQ2 1:41570Touchdown24–14
WASQ2 0:3400End of half24–14
CHIQ3 15:001029Turnover24–14
WASQ3 9:421451Touchdown31–14
CHIQ3 3:0510Turnover31–14
WASQ3 2:5249Turnover on downs31–14
CHIQ3 0:58641Turnover31–14
WASQ4 14:3638Field goal34–14
CHIQ4 12:53843Turnover34–14
WASQ4 10:07626Punt34–14
CHIQ4 6:261185Touchdown34–21
WASQ4 1:21367Touchdown41–21
CHIQ4 0:57425End of half41–21

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins18/2927010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mack Brown88210.31
Rob Kelley19764.00
Kirk Cousins5306.02
Chris Thompson3206.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson571140
Pierre Garcon45940
Ryan Grant34250
Chris Thompson11171
Vernon Davis12130
Rob Kelley2360
Jamison Crowder1230
Maurice Harris0100
Mack Brown11-20

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley24/4032325

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard181196.60
Jeremy Langford7192.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cameron Meredith9121351
Alshon Jeffery510920
Deonte Thompson34341
Daniel Brown24190
Ben Braunecker23190
Josh Bellamy12110
Jordan Howard1390
Jeremy Langford1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.79