2019 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

31·15

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -5

Total

41

Model margin

-0.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.130
  • 41.1%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.164
  • 6.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.71CPOE-2.94
  • 36.4%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.49
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS
2010 · W7WAS @ CHI17–14WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–WAS
CHIQ1 15:00920Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:4041Opp touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:42510Punt7–0
CHIQ1 6:37522Punt7–0
WASQ1 3:301433Missed field goal7–0
CHIQ2 13:231358Touchdown14–0
WASQ2 7:002-9Turnover14–0
CHIQ2 6:2834Touchdown21–0
WASQ2 5:4224Turnover21–0
CHIQ2 5:061073Touchdown28–0
WASQ2 0:43551Field goal28–3
WASQ3 15:00528Turnover28–3
CHIQ3 12:203-2Missed field goal28–3
WASQ3 10:16866Touchdown28–9
CHIQ3 6:39859Turnover28–9
WASQ3 3:071292Touchdown28–15
CHIQ4 13:1136Punt28–15
WASQ4 11:221147Turnover28–15
CHIQ4 7:02958Field goal31–15
WASQ4 1:50633End of half31–15

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky25/3123131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery13675.20
Cordarrelle Patterson4143.50
Taylor Gabriel177.00
Mike Davis122.00
Mitchell Trubisky122.00
Tarik Cohen4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel67753
Allen Robinson67600
Tarik Cohen24260
Trey Burton44200
Anthony Miller13150
David Montgomery33140
Javon Wims1180
Adam Shaheen1170
Cordarrelle Patterson1160

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum30/4333223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson12373.10
Chris Thompson7294.10
Case Keenum231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Paul Richardson89831
Chris Thompson45790
Terry McLaurin68701
Vernon Davis24300
Trey Quinn57300
Steven Sims22240
Jeremy Sprinkle24190
Adrian Peterson13-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.27