2019 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
CHI -5
Total
41
Model margin
-0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.130
- 41.1%Success rate38.8%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.164
- 6.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.71CPOE-2.94
- 36.4%Third-down rate29.0%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.50Points / drive1.49
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 25/31 | 231 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 6 | 7 | 75 | 3 |
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 30/43 | 332 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Richardson | 8 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.27