2025 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
WAS -5.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.035
- 45.7%Success rate46.4%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.084
- +0.007EPA / rush-0.039
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.48CPOE+0.67
- 42.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.32Points / drive2.03
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/29 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 108 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 67 | 1 |
| Luther Burden III | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 19/26 | 211 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 3 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.33
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.07