2025 · Week 6

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

25·24

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

WAS -5.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.035
  • 45.7%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback+0.084
  • +0.007EPA / rush-0.039
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.48CPOE+0.67
  • 42.0%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.03
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS
2010 · W7WAS @ CHI17–14WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–WAS
CHIQ1 15:00841Field goal3–0
WASQ1 10:41934Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 6:06846Field goal6–0
WASQ1 2:2720Turnover6–0
CHIQ1 1:59535Touchdown13–0
WASQ2 14:18950Touchdown13–7
CHIQ2 9:28943Turnover on downs13–7
WASQ2 5:30937Missed field goal13–7
CHIQ2 1:103-2Punt13–7
WASQ2 0:1900End of half13–7
WASQ3 15:00735Field goal13–10
CHIQ3 11:59962Field goal16–10
WASQ3 8:05984Touchdown16–17
CHIQ3 2:56652Missed field goal16–17
WASQ4 14:55763Touchdown16–24
CHIQ4 11:27361Touchdown22–24
WASQ4 10:2666Punt22–24
CHIQ4 7:57412Punt22–24
WASQ4 6:02621Turnover22–24
CHIQ4 3:07738Field goal25–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams17/2925210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift141087.70
Kyle Monangai5193.80
DJ Moore2105.00
Roschon Johnson166.00
Olamide Zaccheaus144.00
Caleb Williams430.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
D'Andre Swift23671
Luther Burden III44510
DJ Moore35420
Rome Odunze25320
Kyle Monangai11250
Olamide Zaccheaus26240
Colston Loveland23110
Cole Kmet1200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels19/2621131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt17613.60
Jayden Daniels10525.20
Jaylin Lane177.00
Jeremy McNichols252.50
Deebo Samuel Sr.1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Moore35461
Zach Ertz66431
Jaylin Lane12370
Luke McCaffrey11331
Jeremy McNichols34300
Deebo Samuel Sr.45150
Jacory Croskey-Merritt1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.33
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.07