2022 · Week 6
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.039
- 40.9%Success rate41.1%
- -0.045EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.004
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.41CPOE-4.05
- 34.9%Third-down rate41.0%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 1.48Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 12/22 | 99 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 14/27 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 7 | 74 | 10.6 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Pettis | 4 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 7 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.44