2022 · Week 6

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Carson Wentz

12·7

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBears
  • -0.066EPA / play-0.039
  • 40.9%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.004
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -1.41CPOE-4.05
  • 34.9%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS
2010 · W7WAS @ CHI17–14WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0071Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:073-5Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:161266Turnover0–0
WASQ1 2:18621Punt0–0
CHIQ2 14:01665Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ2 11:18627Punt0–0
CHIQ2 8:03433Punt0–0
WASQ2 6:01420Punt0–0
CHIQ2 3:4736Punt0–0
WASQ2 2:231025Field goal3–0
CHIQ2 0:46630End of half3–0
WASQ3 15:00519Punt3–0
CHIQ3 11:13994Touchdown3–7
WASQ3 7:161270Field goal6–7
CHIQ4 14:5168Punt6–7
WASQ4 10:3439Punt6–7
WASQ4 8:0626Touchdown12–7
CHIQ4 7:211127Turnover on downs12–7
WASQ4 2:28422Missed field goal12–7
CHIQ4 1:49861Turnover on downs12–7
WASQ4 0:3010End of half12–7

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz12/229900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson17603.51
Antonio Gibson5357.00
J.D. McKissic22010.00
Terry McLaurin2115.50
Carson Wentz221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin34410
Cole Turner22230
Antonio Gibson34180
Curtis Samuel2560
Cam Sims1260
Dax Milne1150
J.D. McKissic0300
Dyami Brown0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields14/2719011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields12887.30
Khalil Herbert77410.60
David Montgomery15674.50
Velus Jones Jr.188.00
Equanimeous St. Brown111.00
Ihmir Smith-Marsette1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dante Pettis47841
Darnell Mooney712680
Cole Kmet13150
David Montgomery11130
Velus Jones Jr.11100
Ryan Griffin0100
Ihmir Smith-Marsette0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.44