2015 · Week 14

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

24·21

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBears
  • +0.022EPA / play-0.020
  • 42.6%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.113
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +5.62CPOE+1.51
  • 43.9%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.74
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS
2010 · W7WAS @ CHI17–14WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CHI
WASQ1 15:001580Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 6:30618Punt7–0
WASQ1 2:37961Touchdown14–0
CHIQ2 14:191044Turnover14–0
WASQ2 9:4646Punt14–0
CHIQ2 7:27851Punt14–0
WASQ2 2:553-5Punt14–0
CHIQ2 1:10563Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 0:1800End of half14–7
CHIQ3 15:003-1Punt14–7
WASQ3 13:351066Touchdown21–7
CHIQ3 8:001065Touchdown21–14
WASQ3 3:4222Turnover21–14
CHIQ3 2:42321Touchdown21–21
WASQ3 1:24651Field goal24–21
CHIQ4 14:0738Punt24–21
WASQ4 12:50752Punt24–21
CHIQ4 9:17755Punt24–21
WASQ4 6:181051Punt24–21
CHIQ4 2:11453Missed field goal24–21
WASQ4 1:40311End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3130011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones18623.40
Alfred Morris11242.21
Kirk Cousins4133.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed991201
Pierre Garcon57520
DeSean Jackson24430
Rashad Ross22270
Matt Jones23240
Jamison Crowder11130
Pierre Thomas11120
Derek Carrier1170
Alfred Morris0100
Ryan Grant0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler19/3131520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte10454.51
Jeremy Langford11373.40
Jay Cutler155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery691071
Zach Miller56851
Marc Mariani23370
Deonte Thompson11360
Jeremy Langford37270
Eddie Royal12150
Matt Forte1280
Khari Lee0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-0.01