2015 · Week 14
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play-0.020
- 42.6%Success rate42.8%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.113
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- +5.62CPOE+1.51
- 43.9%Third-down rate42.3%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.81Points / drive1.74
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/31 | 300 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 9 | 120 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Rashad Ross | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/31 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jeremy Langford | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 5 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Marc Mariani | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Khari Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.01