2023 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

40·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.084
  • 41.6%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.119
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.01CPOE+0.32
  • 41.7%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.53
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS
2010 · W7WAS @ CHI17–14WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–WAS
CHIQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 12:0438Punt7–0
CHIQ1 9:511070Field goal10–0
WASQ1 4:1834Punt10–0
CHIQ1 1:52669Touchdown17–0
WASQ2 14:151137Field goal17–3
CHIQ2 8:331257Field goal20–3
WASQ2 2:2410Turnover20–3
CHIQ2 2:19636Touchdown27–3
WASQ2 0:24435End of half27–3
WASQ3 15:00650Touchdown27–11
CHIQ3 12:00520Punt27–11
WASQ3 9:32215Turnover27–11
CHIQ3 8:443-5Punt27–11
WASQ3 7:40670Field goal27–14
CHIQ3 3:17750Field goal30–14
WASQ4 14:091275Touchdown30–20
CHIQ4 10:5138Punt30–20
WASQ4 9:131052Missed field goal30–20
CHIQ4 5:11364Touchdown37–20
WASQ4 4:0941Turnover on downs37–20
CHIQ4 2:3037Field goal40–20
WASQ4 1:56641End of half40–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields15/2928240

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert10767.60
Justin Fields11575.20
Roschon Johnson3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore8102303
Cole Kmet55421
Robert Tonyan22100
Equanimeous St. Brown0100
Darnell Mooney0400
Khalil Herbert0300

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell37/5138821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sam Howell4194.80
Brian Robinson6101.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas911771
Curtis Samuel67651
Antonio Gibson46640
Terry McLaurin45490
Brian Robinson44330
Jahan Dotson35300
Jamison Crowder22210
John Bates22190
Dyami Brown13110
Byron Pringle12100
Cole Turner1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.52