2023 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.084
- 41.6%Success rate41.9%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.01CPOE+0.32
- 41.7%Third-down rate35.6%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.72Points / drive1.53
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. WAS are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 15/29 | 282 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 10 | 76 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 10 | 230 | 3 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 37/51 | 388 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 9 | 11 | 77 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.52